Summary – Donald Trump wins US Election
Donald Trump just won the 2016 US Presidential Election. How did it happen, and more importantly, what does it mean for politics going forward?
The polls were always wrong
The polls predicted a h2 victory for Hillary Clinton. That obviously did not happen. There are several reasons for this:
1) The sample is never representative of the population
This is the primary assumption of the polls, which is invalid. In statistics, you want to make sure your sample chosen (the people you poll) are representative of the population. This means that every person who is polled should be representative of the average VOTER. This is obviously not true as people who respond to polls are a subset of the population, which is not proportional to the overall voting base. For example, if rich people don’t like to respond to polls but rich people are likely to vote one way over another, then the polls will miss that result.
2) The sample needs to be truthful
This is a second assumption of the polls, which is also invalid. Take Kathy for example (pictured above). She supports Trump, and has been subject to a lot of hate. People have defriended her, her car has been damaged, she’s been denied service at restaurants, and someone threw a burrito at her. This hatred makes many who suport Republicans and Trump hesitant to voice that support, in fear of left wing extremists who are against free speech.
-> Election polls only take into account a subset of the population, which doesn’t represent the entire population and may not be truthful in their polling responses.
Exit polls fall under the same bias
This is why the media and many analysts focus on the white vote, as that’s the main group who’s shown in polls as likely to vote for Trump. But the same bias that occurs before the election affects the post-vote (or exit) polls.
1) If people weren’t willing to say they were Trump supporters in a poll before the vote, they likely won’t say they support Trump in a poll after the vote
2) Since Trump still won, it shows there’s a significant proportion of people who support Trump but won’t say so in a poll.
-> Exit polls are subject to the same fallacies as pre-election polls.
What matters to Asian Americans
By and large, asians want a fair shot. This means being treated equally when it comes to college admissions, job applications, and other important areas of life. This is what the American dream is about, where merit and success is rewarded.
This is why many asians are against affirmative action, even if most don’t publically acknowledge it. Left wing liberals tend to label anyone who disagrees with them as racists and Asians tend to have a mentality of keeping our heads down, working hard, and hoping to succeed.
-> Asians want a fair chance at success, where hard work and responsibility is rewarded. Democrats believe in preferred treatment to certain ethnicities, which alienates the Asian voters who are against that racism.
Affirmative action (known as employment equity in Canada, reservation in India and Nepal, and positive discrimination in the UK) is the policy of favoring members of a disadvantaged group.
But it’s racist! Why should the under-qualified son of a black doctor displace the qualified daughter of a Vietnamese boat refugee?
-> “Affirmative Action” is racist and discriminatory. Democrats support it, Republicans are against it.
How Democrats Lost the Asian Vote
-> Asians don’t like discriminatory and racist policies that disadvantage them and their families.
How Democrats Lost the Latino Vote
Only 65% of Latinos supported her, while 29% cast their votes for Trump. In 2012, Obama won 71% of the Hispanic vote, while Romney secured 27%.
This is likely underrated as well, since like Asians there are many latinos who may not be comfortable expressing their support for a candidate the media says they should not support.
Mexicans and Latinos in general come to America to pursue the American Dream. They believe that hard work in the great US of A is rewarded by success and that there’s a chance to earn a life for themselves and their families. Note that a recurrent theme of this narrative is hard work and earning a place. While the racist affirmative action policies benefits latinos, handouts are not what many Latinos come to the US for. They came here to earn a life, not wait for a handout. They see the racist policies of the Democratic Party that benefits certain races (ie: black and latino) over others, and this isn’t the American Dream they came here for. Thus Latinos voting Republican, who despite their faults is more in line with the idealology of earning your rewards.
-> Latinos came here to earn the American Dream, not for a handout. They see the racism from Democrats and gets pushed towards Republicans.
Next Steps for Democrats
Democrats really need to re-evaluate their policies. Their attempts to prioritize certain ethnicities at the expense of others has backfired.
They disadvantaged asians and thought asians would support them anyways. They were wrong.
They gave preference and focused on latinos and blacks through affirmative action, but latinos told them to stuff it. Latinos rather EARN Their success.
Next Steps for Trump and Republicans
Trump and Republicans won this election because of minorities like Chinese and Indians who believed Republicans can give America a fairer future by abolishing racist policies like affirmative action. Let’s hope that Trump and the Republican party can follow through by making college and job opportunities fair for all by banning race as a selection criteria.